5.0%: Note:  This assumes that equivalence was achieved on financial metrics between intervention and reference group, i.e. that baseline costs for the intervention group were equal to baseline costs of the reference group.  According to the RTI report, equivalence was achieved at the time of randomization, but for reasons yet unknown, this equivalence was apparently not maintained.

The calculations below are based upon averaging various metrics from all eight sites; and the projections are based upon these assumptions:  The percent of the intervention population that participate in the program in the future will be the same as in the past (about 80% as calculated from Table 6-4). Moreover, that the average costs of participant and non-participants will be the same as in the past (as calculated from the data in Table 3-1). Finally, it assumes MHSOs will meet all financial targets for the remainder of the trial.

2.1%:  About 20% (or 1 of 5) of those eligible for the intervention group are not participating (Table 6-4); and the average baseline cost of the non-participants was much higher than the participants, $1,228 to $2,061 (Table 3-1).   The target savings is 5%:  Five percent of the participant cost is $61.40 ($1,228.00 * .05) ; while 5% of the non-participant costs are $103.25 ($2,061 * .05).   Because the non-participant savings must, by definition, come from the participants, each the MHSOs must generate an additional $25.76 from each participant ($103.25 / 4) to get an overall 5% savings. This calculates to 2.1% of the baseline participant cost ($25.76 / $1,228). 

9.5%:  The average fee per participant is calculated to be $116.50 [(74 + 159) / 2) (page 4).   This is 9.5 percent of the average baseline costs of the participants ($116.50 / $1,228.00).

3.3%:  The average “percent of fees recovered” for the first 6 months is calculated to be 3.1%  (Table 6-4) or $3.61 ($116.50*.031).  Therefore, for each participant the MHSOs are in the hole for $202.55  PBPM ($206.16 – $3.61) for the first 6 months. This $202.55 PBPM deficit must be recovered over the remaining two and one-half years, i.e. five (5) 6 months periods.  Thus, an additional $40.51 ($202.55 / 5) or 3.3% ($40.51 / $1,228) must be saved per month for each participant.